If any Republican intends to dethrone former President Donald Trump in the GOP’s presidential primary, they’ve got a herculean task in front of them.
Trump leads in primary polling of 48 states, according to polling analysis compiled by Race to the White House.
Trump is projected for a “decisive win” in 26 primary states — scoring enough of the primary vote to secure most or all of a state’s delegates at the 2024 Republican convention.
The front-runner would secure 1,774 delegates at the current rate, according to Race to the White House’s projections — a figure that easily surpasses the total of 1,234 figure a candidate needs to secure nomination at the convention, according to Ballotpedia.
🚨NEW: 2024 Republican Primary Delegate Forecast by @RacetotheWH
Trump — 1774
DeSantis — 440
After NV, only Trump and DeSantis:
Trump — 2048
DeSantis — 406
✅ 1,234 delegates needed to win the nomination
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 6, 2023
Trump would end up with a mammoth 2,048 delegates in a scenario where the other Republican competitors drop out after the Nevada primary, according to the estimate.
Gov. Ron DeSantis is the only other Republican candidate to lead in primary polling for any state.
DeSantis is projected for a decisive win in Florida — a state in which he currently serves as governor.
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Trump and DeSantis appear slated for a tie in Utah — a scenario in which they would split the state’s 20 delegates.
Trump is slated for mere “narrow wins” in the early primary states of Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.
He’s projected for a “decisive win” in South Carolina, however.
Early primary wins for Trump could preempt the possibility of a competitive Republican primary.
DeSantis has struggled to hold second place in some polling, with Vivek Ramaswamy only trailing the governor by six percentage points in a Monday Echelon Insights survey.
👀Vivek Ramaswamy hits 10% in the latest Echelon Insights GOP presidential primary poll, just 6 behind DeSantis.
— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) July 5, 2023
Trump is all but assured to face President Joe Biden in a general election rematch, should he secure renomination.
The frontrunner has questioned attending primary debates, citing his formidable lead.
If elected, the businessman would become first president since Democrat Grover Cleveland to serve non-consecutive terms in the White House.